Long Position Sizer

For now, use your existing tool at:

https://caa-app.ww-f57.workers.dev/#long

Short Position Sizer

For now, use your existing tool at:

https://caa-app.ww-f57.workers.dev/#short

Research Sub-Agents

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https://caa-app.ww-f57.workers.dev/#research

LONG SCOREBOARD

Champagne Longs • Updated May 2, 2026

CPNG - Coupang
Entry $18.50 → Current $20.50 (+10.8%) | Position: 3.5% | Target: $28 (+37%)
8.5/10
Thesis: Korea e-commerce dominance (27% share) + Rocket Delivery scaling + Taiwan expansion
Upside: +56% to bull case ($32)
Downside: -27% to bear case ($15)
Skew: 2.1:1
Catalysts: Q2 2026 earnings, Taiwan launch Q3 2026
▼ Click for details
RACE - Ferrari
Entry $400 → Current $425 (+6.3%) | Position: 8% | Target: $525 (+24%)
9.2/10
Thesis: Veblen good + Purosangue SUV ramp + pricing power in inflation
Upside: +41% to bull case ($600)
Downside: -18% to bear case ($350)
Skew: 2.3:1
DCF: $510 | ROIC: 45% | FCF Yield: 3.5%
▼ Click for details

SHORT SCOREBOARD

Tripwire Shorts • Updated May 2, 2026

AERO SW - Montana Aerospace
Entry CHF 35 → Current CHF 32.40 (+7.4% profit) | Position: -5% | Expected: -65%
10/10
Thesis: Governance red flags + weak ROIC + related party transactions
Expected Profit: -65% to CHF 12.25
Capped Risk: +31% to CHF 46
Skew: 2.1:1
Catalyst: FY2025 earnings March 2026 (31 days away)
Squeeze Risk: SI 18%, Borrow 8%
▼ Click for details
MTLN GA - Metlen Energy
Entry €35 → Current €31.50 (+10% profit) | Position: -4% | Expected: -73%
10/10
Thesis: Greece subsidy cliff + stranded assets + free cash flow collapse
Expected Profit: -73% to €9.45
Capped Risk: +7.5% to €37.60
Skew: 9.7:1
Catalyst: Greece subsidy expires Dec 2025 (214 days away)
▼ Click for details
PTON - Peloton
Entry $8.50 → Current $6.20 (+27% profit) | Position: -4.5% | Expected: -41%
6.3/10
Thesis: Subscriber churn + pricing pressure + EBITDA burn
Expected Profit: -41% to $5.00
Capped Risk: +29% to $8.00
Skew: 1.4:1
Catalyst: Q2 earnings May 8, 2026 (7 days away)
Squeeze Risk: SI 28%, RSI 28 (OVERSOLD) ⚠️
▼ Click for details

THESIS WARNING SYSTEM

Kill Switch Monitoring • Email Alerts: ww@consumeralphaadvisors.com

🟢 Green
0
Thesis intact
🟡 Yellow
1
Monitor
🟠 Orange
1
Warning
🔴 Red
0
EXIT NOW
🟡 CPNG - Coupang
1 YELLOW kill switch triggered | 3 thesis pillars monitored
YELLOW
Pillar 1: Rocket Delivery Scaling - 🟢 GREEN - All metrics on track. Revenue +35% YoY, margins improving to -5%.

Pillar 2: International Losses Narrowing - 🟢 GREEN - Losses declining as expected: $55M Q4 vs $65M Q3.

Pillar 3: Korea Market Share Defended - 🟡 YELLOW - ⚠️ TRIGGERED: Market share 25.8% (down from 27.2%). Threshold: 25-27%. Action: MONITOR CLOSELY. Source: Euromonitor April 2026 report.
▼ Click for pillar details
🟠 AERO SW - Montana Aerospace
1 ORANGE kill switch triggered | Short thesis weakening
ORANGE
Pillar 1: Governance Red Flags - 🟠 ORANGE - ⚠️ TRIGGERED: Related party transactions declined to 8.5% (threshold <10%). Action: REDUCE SHORT TO 2%. Source: FY2025 Annual Report March 15.

Pillar 2: Weak ROIC Persists - 🟢 GREEN - ROIC at 5.8% (vs 5.4% prior). Still weak, short thesis intact.
▼ Click for pillar details

PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT

Live Risk Monitoring • Updated May 2, 2026

Net Delta
+2.3%
Target: 0% ±10%
Gross Delta
102.3%
Target: 100%
Net Beta
0.08
Market exposure
L/S Ratio
1.48
Target: 1.5

MARKET CAP EXPOSURE

Mega: Long 8% | Short 0%

Large: Long 32% | Short 15%

Mid: Long 18% | Short 20%

Small: Long 2% | Short 5%

TAKE PROFIT DASHBOARD

Systematic Profit Taking • 6 Triggers • Updated May 2, 2026

Unrealized P&L
+$137k
Across 3 positions
Trim Candidates
2
Score ≥7
Hold Positions
1
Score <7
RACE - Ferrari [LONG]
Entry $425 → Current $505 (+18.8%) | 4 triggers fired | RECOMMENDED: TRIM 50%
8.5
✓ Hit Initial Target: Price $505 vs $500 target (+1%)
✓ Catalyst Complete: Purosangue ramp exceeded expectations
✓ Technical Extension: RSI 72, 18% above 200d MA
✓ Valuation Stretch: 35x EBITDA vs 32x historical (+9%)
▼ Click for trigger details
PTON - Peloton [SHORT]
Entry $8.50 → Current $6.20 (+27% profit) | 4 triggers fired | RECOMMENDED: COVER 50%
9.2
✓ Rapid Gains: +27% profit in 3.5 months
✓ Catalyst Complete: Q2 earnings miss confirmed
✓ Technical Extension: RSI 28, 32% below 200d MA (oversold)
✓ Squeeze Threat: SI 28%, borrow 22%, oversold
▼ Click for trigger details
RTO LN - Rentokil [LONG]
Entry 450p → Current 485p (+7.8%) | No triggers | RECOMMENDED: HOLD
2.5
○ Target: 485p vs 520p target (7% away)
○ Catalyst: US turnaround 50% complete
○ Technical: RSI 58, normal range
○ Velocity: +7.8% in 8 months (slow)
▼ Click for trigger details