Long Position Sizer
Kelly · downside band ceiling · skew-adjusted R/R · conviction modifier · 60% book, 10–15 names
Step 1a — Downside risk (sets position ceiling)
Step 1b — Catalyst timing
Step 2a — Expected case upside
Step 2b — Upside/downside skew
Step 3 — Conviction modifier (only modifier that lifts above Kelly)
FINAL POSITION SIZE—
0%2%4%6%8%10%
Short Position Sizer
Kelly · four risk modifiers · 40% win rate · 1.7× R/R baseline · 40% gross short exposure, 10–15 names
Step 1 — If wrong: stock rallies against you
Step 2 — If right: stock falls
Step 3 — Catalyst timing
Step 4 — Risk modifiers (all multiply Kelly)
Squeeze risk
60-day volatility
Liquidity
Beta
FINAL POSITION SIZE—
0%1%2%3%4%6%